What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Celta and 1.3 from Juventus, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Juventus to win. Juventus shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.59, which works out at about 39 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Celta have not won any of their last five.
✓Juventus have won three of their last five.
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