What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Celtic and 1.3 from Ferencvarosi TC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Celtic to win. Celtic are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.3), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.82, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Ferencvarosi TC only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 44%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
