Jagiellonia v Ararat Armenia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Jagiellonia or Draw 76%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.9 goals from Jagiellonia and 1.2 from Ararat Armenia, so Jagiellonia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Jagiellonia come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Jagiellonia or Draw. This covers Jagiellonia or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.12, which works out at about 89 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.