What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Juventus and 0.7 from NEC Nijmegen, so Juventus come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Juventus to win. Juventus are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.7), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn NEC Nijmegen a draw or better.
