What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Milan and 1.7 from Benfica, so Benfica come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Benfica come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Benfica to win. Benfica shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.7), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.33, which works out at about 30 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
