What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Nijmegen and 1.8 from Levski Sofia, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Nijmegen come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Levski Sofia to win. Levski Sofia shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.8), and we make them about 41% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 4.36, which works out at about 23 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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