Nijmegen v Levski Sofia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Levski Sofia or Draw 65%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.6 goals from Nijmegen and 1.7 from Levski Sofia, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Nijmegen come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Levski Sofia or Draw. This covers Levski Sofia or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.83, which works out at about 55 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.