What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.0 from Jagiellonia, so Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Olympiakos Piraeus to win. Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.0), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Jagiellonia to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 47%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
