How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Rennes to win 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.7 goals from Rennes and 0.8 from OFI Crete, so Rennes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Rennes to win. Rennes are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-0.8), and we make them about 76% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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