What to expect
Albania host San Marino at home in the Nations League on 6 October. Albania sit second in a four-team group with six points from three games and a +4 goal difference. They are just one point behind Finland in the Euro places and two points ahead of Belarus. San Marino sit bottom with no points, a –14 goal difference and already in the relegation zone, four points behind Belarus. Both teams played three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor, but the table tells us what is at stake – Albania can solidify a push for the top spot, while San Marino are fighting to avoid a deeper drop.
Albania’s recent run shows a mixed picture. Their last three fixtures were a 2-1 loss away to Finland, a 3-0 win away over San Marino and a 2-0 victory at home against Belarus. In those three games they have scored six goals and let in only two. They kept two clean sheets and have been involved in two matches with three or more goals, while the other saw both sides score. The win over San Marino was a comfortable three-goal margin, and the home win over Belarus gave them a solid defensive display.
San Marino have not enjoyed any success in their last three outings. They fell 4-0 away to Belarus, were beaten 3-0 at home by Albania and then suffered a 7-0 home loss to Finland. They have scored no goals while conceding fourteen. All three matches featured three or more goals, but San Marino never found the net. The most recent defeat to Finland was a heavy 7-0 loss that underlines how difficult it has been for them to create any scoring chances.
The two sides have met before in this competition, with Albania winning 3-0 at home. That result mirrors the pattern we have seen in the recent games – Albania scoring freely and keeping a clean sheet, San Marino unable to threaten. Given the goal differences and the way the previous encounter unfolded, we expect a similar open game with chances at both ends, but heavily tilted toward the hosts.
Our pick is Albania to win. The numbers give Albania an average of three goals while San Marino average only 0.3, and the chance of an Albanian goal is 95 percent. The price of 1.04 is shorter than our reading, which makes it a very safe choice. For this to go wrong Albania would have to fail to score at all, an outcome that looks unlikely, or San Marino would need to find a rare goal. Both scenarios are low-probability, so we feel confident in backing the home side.
Recent meetings
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