What to expect
Algeria host Zambia in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. The match is being played at home for Algeria, while Zambia travel for the points. Both teams are still chasing a place in the finals, so every three points matters. In the table Algeria sit above Zambia, reflecting the stronger numbers we have for the two sides. Our calculations give Algeria an average of 2.9 goals per game compared with just 0.8 for Zambia. That gap makes Algeria the clear favourite on paper, but the numbers also suggest an open game with chances at both ends. The stakes are simple: three points for the winner, one for a draw, none for the loser, and both nations will be looking to keep their qualification hopes alive.
Our pick is Algeria to win. The price on offer is 1.38, which is longer than the odds we feel the match deserves. We see Algeria scoring in 95 % of their games and finding the net twice or more in 80 % of them. Zambia, on the other hand, score in only half of their matches and manage two goals in just 15 % of outings. Putting those figures together gives us an 84 % chance that Algeria will come out on top. The price looks good for a side that is expected to score almost three goals on average while keeping the visitors under one. For our prediction to go wrong, Algeria would have to be shut out completely and Zambia would need to find the net twice, a scenario that the numbers say is very unlikely. In our view, backing Algeria to win is the cleaner play, and the price of 1.38 offers a nice return for a result we expect to happen.
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