How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Brazil or Draw 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Australia host Brazil in an international friendly on 29 September 2026. The match is being played in Australia, so the Socceroos will have the home crowd behind them. In the friendly rankings Brazil sit above Australia, and the numbers we have show Brazil as the stronger side. Brazil are expected to score 1.4 goals on average, while Australia average 1.2. The two teams are not playing for qualification points, but the result still matters for confidence and preparation. Both sides will be rotating their squads, so the coaches will be looking at how the new players perform as well as the final score.
We think the safest way to back this game is to back Brazil or a draw. The price on that option is 1.09, which is shorter than what we feel the game is worth. Our own reading gives us a 73 per cent chance that either Brazil will win or the match will end level. The odds of Brazil scoring at all are 78 per cent and they have a 42 per cent chance of scoring twice or more. Australia have a 68 per cent chance to find the net and a 30 per cent chance to score two or more. If Brazil manage to score first and keep a clean sheet, the price will pay out. The pick would fail if Australia manage to score two goals and keep Brazil to a single strike, or if the game ends with Brazil scoring none. In those cases the price would not be enough. Overall, the price looks good for the risk, and the wider safety net of a draw makes it a sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
