Costa Rica v Curaçao prediction

What to expect

Costa Rica host Curaçao at home in the CONCACAF Nations League on 25 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of the table, but the numbers show a clear edge for the hosts. Costa Rica are expected to score about two goals while Curaçao average just over one. The stakes are modest – a win will push the home side a few places up, while a loss could see Curaçao slip further down. The odds suggest an open game with chances for both sides, but Costa Rica are the stronger side on paper.

Costa Rica have been busy in their last few matches. They beat their previous opponent 3-1, then followed that with a 2-0 victory, and most recently they won 4-2. Those three games give them a run of three wins in a row and a total of nine goals scored while conceding three. The run shows they can find the net regularly and keep a clean sheet in most outings.

Curaçao’s recent form tells a different story. They lost 3-0 in their last game, then were beaten 4-1 in the one before that, and before that they managed a 2-2 draw. The most recent 3-0 defeat was a clear display of defensive frailty, as they failed to score and allowed three without reply. Across the three matches they have scored three goals and let in eight, indicating they struggle to keep clean sheets and find the back of the net.

When the two sides have met before, the games have been fairly balanced, with both teams able to create chances. The statistical picture for this encounter points to a match with goals at both ends. Costa Rica’s chance of scoring at all is very high – nine times out of ten – and they are likely to hit the net twice or more two-thirds of the time. Curaçao will also find the net in two-thirds of their games, though they are less likely to score more than once. The numbers suggest an open contest where the home side should have the edge but the visitors can still threaten.

Our pick is Costa Rica on a draw-no-bet basis. The price of 1.30 matches our view of the game. Costa Rica are favoured to win, with an average of 2.2 goals to Curaçao’s 1.2, and the draw-no-bet option removes the risk of a level result – only a loss for Costa Rica would hurt us. The chance of this selection working is 77 out of 100. It would go wrong if Curaçao manage to keep a clean sheet and score twice while holding Costa Rica to a single goal, or if the match ends level. Otherwise the odds and the goal expectations line up well for a Costa Rica win.