How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Senegal to win 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Mozambique host Senegal in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. The match takes place on Mozambican soil, giving the home side the familiar advantage of playing in front of their own fans. In the group table, Senegal sit above Mozambique, reflecting the stronger record that the numbers show. Both teams are chasing points to keep their qualification hopes alive, but the gap between them is clear. The odds suggest an open game, with chances likely at both ends of the pitch, but Senegal are expected to be the side that finishes with more goals.
Our reading of the numbers points firmly toward a Senegal win. The goal expectations are 0.9 for Mozambique and 2.3 for Senegal, adding up to about 3.2 goals in the game. Mozambique have a 52 % chance of finding the net at all and only a 17 % chance of scoring twice or more. Senegal, on the other hand, are far more likely to score, with a 92 % chance of at least one goal and a 71 % chance of hitting the net twice or more. We give our pick a 76 % chance of success and think the price of 1.31 matches our view closely. In short, Senegal shade this one on the numbers and look the better bet on the road. Backing them outright is the straightforward way to go, and the price looks good for the level of confidence we have.
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