How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Angola to win 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Angola and 0.6 from Malawi, so Angola come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Angola to win. Angola are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.6), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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