Armenia v Latvia prediction

What to expect

Armenia host Latvia in a UEFA Nations League clash on 25 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their group, each looking to pull clear of the relegation spots. A win for Armenia would push them a step closer to safety, while Latvia needs three points to stay clear of the bottom. On paper Armenia looks the stronger side, with a higher chance of scoring and a better chance of finding the net twice. The game could decide which side finishes the round on a higher note.

Armenia have been busy in their last few outings. They beat Cyprus 2-0, then drew 1-1 with Georgia, and followed that with a 3-1 victory over Moldova. Those three results give them five goals scored and just two conceded. The run shows they can find the net regularly and keep opponents at bay. Their recent form suggests they go into the match with confidence in both attack and defence.

Latvia’s recent form has been mixed. They lost 0-2 to Estonia, then bounced back with a 2-2 draw against Finland, and most recently edged a 1-0 win over Lithuania. That last win came from a late goal that gave them three points and a small boost in morale. Over the three games they have scored three goals and let in four, indicating they can score but also leak at times.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be close, with both teams able to find the net. Given the numbers we have, this meeting looks like it could produce a couple of goals, perhaps a narrow win for the hosts or a draw if Latvia manages to hold firm. Armenia’s higher probability of scoring and the chance of a second goal suggest they will press forward, while Latvia’s decent chance of scoring means they will look to stay in the game.

Our pick is Armenia or Draw. The price of 1.21 is shorter than what we think the game deserves, so we like the safety net it offers. Backing Armenia or a draw covers the most likely outcomes without having to guess the exact score. The price looks good and we feel comfortable with it. For this pick to fail, Armenia would have to lose, which would require a very poor performance from them and a strong showing from Latvia. We think that is unlikely, so we are happy with the choice.