Armenia v Montenegro: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Montenegro or Draw 68%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Armenia host Montenegro in a UEFA Nations League clash on 28 September 2026. Both teams sit close together in the league table, with neither side far ahead or far behind the others. The points at stake are modest but could decide who finishes higher when the round ends. In terms of scoring, the numbers are almost identical. Armenia are expected to net about 1.3 goals, while Montenegro are a touch higher at 1.5. Together the game should produce just under three goals on average. The chance that Armenia will find the net at all sits at 74 %, and the chance they score twice or more is 38 %. Montenegro look slightly more likely to score, with a 78 % chance of at least one goal and a 44 % chance of two or more. In short, both sides are expected to attack, and a close, possibly high-scoring encounter is what the figures suggest.

Our pick is Montenegro or a draw, offered at 1.40. The price is shorter than what we feel the game will deliver, which makes it attractive. We see a 68 % chance that this selection will be right. Backing Montenegro or the draw gives us a safety net – if the match ends level we still win, and if Montenegro snatches the win we are also covered. The price looks good for that wider safety net. The only way this could go wrong is if Armenia manage to keep a clean sheet and then score twice, turning the game into a 2-0 win for the hosts. In that case both parts of our selection would fail. Otherwise, the odds of at least one goal from either side and the likelihood of a tight finish make Montenegro or the draw a sensible way to back the lean without needing to pick the exact scoreline.