Japan v Venezuela: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Japan to win 78%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Japan host Venezuela in an international friendly on 28 September 2026. Both teams are using the match to test players, so the result will not affect any tournament qualification. In the unofficial rankings of the game, Japan sit clearly above Venezuela. The numbers we have show Japan averaging about 2.5 goals per match while Venezuela are expected to score less than one. That gap makes Japan the stronger side on paper. The stakes are modest, but a win would keep Japan’s confidence high and give Venezuela a chance to measure themselves against a higher-rated opponent.

We think Japan will win. The price of 1.26 matches our view of the game. Japan are expected to score at least once in 93 % of similar matches and to find the net twice or more in 72 % of them. Venezuela’s chances of scoring at all sit at 49 % and of scoring twice at only 14 %. Putting those figures together, we give Japan a 78 % chance of coming out on top. The price looks good for that level of confidence. For the pick to go wrong, Japan would have to struggle to create any clear chances and Venezuela would need to pull off a rare double-goal performance. If that happens, the result would be a surprise, but the odds suggest it is unlikely. In our view, backing Japan to win is the cleaner play.