How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Tajikistan or Draw 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Tajikistan and 0.9 from Palestine, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Tajikistan or Draw. This covers Tajikistan or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
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