South Korea v Uruguay: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made South Korea or Draw 67%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

South Korea host Uruguay in an international friendly on 28 September 2026. Both teams are using the match to give playing time to a broader group of players, so the result will not carry the weight of a qualifier. In the eyes of the bookmakers the two sides are almost evenly matched. The expected goal tally is 1.2 for South Korea and 1.1 for Uruguay, giving a total of about 2.3 goals in the game. The chance that South Korea will find the net at least once is 69 %, while Uruguay’s chance to score is 67 %. Both teams also have a roughly one-in-three chance of scoring twice or more – 31 % for the hosts and 29 % for the visitors.

Our pick is South Korea or a draw, offered at 1.35. The price is shorter than our own reading of the game, which means we are paying a little extra for a wider safety net. We think the most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw or a narrow win for the home side, given the similar scoring probabilities and the fact that both teams are likely to be cautious in a friendly. The price looks good for that view. For the pick to go wrong, Uruguay would need to win by a clear margin, or both sides would have to stay completely shut-out, which the numbers do not favour. Our chance of this selection being right sits at 67 %, matching the probability that at least one of the two sides will score.