Aruba v Martinique prediction

What to expect

Aruba host Martin Martinique in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 12 November. The island team sit just above the bottom of the table, while Martinique are a little higher, but both are still fighting to avoid the drop zone. A win for Aruba would lift them a spot and give them a chance to climb out of the relegation battle. For Martinique a positive result keeps them clear of the danger and maintains a small cushion above the teams below. The numbers show Martinique as the stronger side, with a slightly higher expected goal total.

Aruba come into this game on a decent run. In their last four matches they have won three and lost one. The most recent result was a 3-2 defeat away to Antigua and Barbuda. Before that they beat Anguilla 3-2 at home and then 2-0 away. Their earlier win was a 1-0 home victory over Antigua and Barbuda. In those four games Aruba have scored eight goals and let in five. They kept two clean sheets and two of the matches featured three or more goals, with both sides finding the net in both of those high-scoring games.

Martinique have been less consistent. Their last four outings produced one win, one draw and two defeats. The latest was a 1-1 draw at home against El Salvador. Prior to that they earned a 2-1 home win over Honduras. Their two losses came away, 2-1 to Suriname and 3-1 to El Salvador. Across those four fixtures Martinique have scored five goals while conceding seven. Three of the games had three or more goals and all four saw both teams get on the scoresheet.

When the two sides have met before, the games have been open and produced goals on both ends. The pattern suggests a match where each team is likely to find the net, and the recent form of both clubs points to a similar style. With Aruba’s recent ability to score three goals and Martinique’s habit of both scoring and conceding, we can expect a fairly balanced encounter with chances for both sides.

We back Martinique or a draw. The price of 1.16 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, giving us a small profit if either result happens. Our confidence in this pick is about 70 %. For the bet to fail, Aruba would need to win outright, which would require them to improve on their recent loss and keep a clean sheet. If the game stays tight and both teams score, the selection should hold.