Ghana v Somalia prediction

What to expect

Ghana host Somalia in an AFCON qualifier at home on 12 November. Both teams sit at the bottom of the four-team group with no points from two games. Ghana sit fourth, three places from the top, with a goal difference of minus four. Somalia are just above them in third place, also on zero points but with a slightly better goal difference of minus three. The gap between them and the group leaders is large, but a win will lift Ghana one spot and keep Somalia’s hopes alive. On paper Ghana are the stronger side, averaging almost two goals per game while Somalia average half a goal.

Ghana’s recent form has been poor. In their first two matches they lost 3-0 to Celtic and then 4-1 to Kilmarnock. Those defeats give them a total of one goal scored and seven conceded in the last two outings. The run has left them with a negative goal balance and no points, putting pressure on them to respond in front of their fans.

Somalia have also struggled to find points. Their two games ended in a 2-0 loss to Gambia and a 1-1 draw with the same side. The draw gave them a single point and a goal difference of minus three, while the loss left them winless. Their most recent result, the 1-1 draw, showed a bit of resilience as they managed to get on the scoresheet after going behind, but they still failed to secure three points.

When the two sides meet, the numbers suggest a one-sided affair. Ghana are expected to score in 88 % of their games and to find the net twice or more in 60 % of matches. Somalia, on the other hand, only score in 34 % of games and manage two goals in just 6 % of outings. The goal averages of 1.9 for Ghana and 0.5 for Somalia underline the gap. We expect a modest number of goals overall, around two and a half, with Ghana likely to do most of the damage.

Our pick is Ghana to win. The price on offer is 1.08, which is shorter than we feel the game deserves. We see Ghana winning about 76 % of the time, a figure that matches their stronger scoring record and home advantage. The price looks good for a side that should dominate the match. For the pick to go wrong, Somalia would need to score first and then hold on, or Ghana would have to fail to break down a disciplined defence – both unlikely given the statistics. In our view, backing Ghana is the cleaner play.