DR Congo v Sierra Leone prediction

What to expect

DR Congo host Sierra Leone in an AFCON qualifier on 12 November. The hosts sit top of a four-team group with six points from two games and a +3 goal difference. That puts them in the table’s Euro-qualification places, three points clear of Zimbabwe in second. Sierra Leone sit bottom, still on zero points and a –2 goal difference, three points behind Equatorial Guinea in third. A win for DR Congo would seal the group lead, while a draw would keep the gap safe; Sierra Leone need a miracle to climb out of last place.

DR Congo’s recent form has been mixed over the last four matches, two at home and two away. They began with a 2-0 win over Equatorial Guinea at home, then travelled to beat Zimbabwe 2-1. The next two games were against Uganda: a 1-1 draw away followed by a 2-0 defeat at home. In those four games they have scored five goals and let in four. They kept one clean sheet, failed to score in one match, and have been involved in three-goal games once, with both sides finding the net in two of the fixtures.

Sierra Leone have not collected any points from their two games so far. Their only listed results are a 3-0 loss to Celtic and a 4-1 defeat by Kilmarnock. The latter was a heavy loss in which they managed a single goal but still conceded four. Those two outings give them a total of one goal scored and seven conceded, showing they have struggled to find the net and to keep clean sheets.

When the two sides have met before, the record is not provided, so we cannot comment on head-to-head history. Given the numbers we have, this match looks like a one-sided affair. DR Congo are expected to score about two goals, while Sierra Leone’s chance of scoring at all is low, just 37 %. The likelihood of DR Congo finding the net is high at 88 %, and they have a 63 % chance of scoring twice or more. The overall expectation is roughly 2.6 goals in the game, most of them coming from the home side.

Our pick is DR Congo to win. The price of 1.28 matches our own view of the game and offers a decent return for a side that looks clearly stronger on the numbers. We estimate a 77 % chance that this result will happen. For the pick to go wrong, Sierra Leone would need to break through their low scoring rate and either draw or win, which would require them to score at least once – something that has only happened in one of their two games so far. As long as DR Congo keep their usual scoring rhythm, the win looks the cleaner play.