How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Senegal to win 86%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Senegal host Mozambique in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are in the same group, but the table shows Senegal clearly ahead. The points on offer mean Senegal can tighten their grip on the top spot, while Mozambique will need a win to keep any hope of moving up. The numbers we have paint Senegal as the stronger side, with an expected 3.0 goals compared with just 0.7 for Mozambique. That suggests an open game where the home side will create most of the chances, but the visitors still have a chance to get on the scoresheet.
We see Senegal as the clear favourite. The chance they will score at least once is 96 %, and the chance they will hit twice or more is 81 %. Mozambique’s odds of scoring at all sit at 46 %, and only 13 % for a double. Our pick is Senegal to win. The price of 1.31 is longer than our own reading of the match, where we put Senegal’s chance of victory at about 88 %. The price therefore looks good. For this to go wrong, Senegal would have to be shut out completely and Mozambique would need to score twice – an outcome that the numbers say is very unlikely.
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