Barbados v Guadeloupe prediction

What to expect

Barbados host Guadeloupe in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 12 November. The home side sit top of their four-team group with ten points from four games and a +6 goal difference. They are a single point clear of Saint Lucia in second place. Guadeloupe are third, holding four points and a –3 goal difference, five points behind Saint Lucia and four points ahead of Bermuda in fourth. Both teams need something from this match – Barbados to keep the lead and Guadeloupe to climb back into contention.

Barbados come into the game on the back of two straight wins. Their last four fixtures have produced three victories and a draw, with no defeats. They beat Bermuda 2-1 away, then turned the tables at home with a 4-1 win over the same opponents. After a 2-2 draw with Guadeloupe away, they secured a 2-0 home victory over Saint Lucia. In those four games they have found the net ten times while letting in just four goals. They kept one clean sheet and three of the matches featured three or more goals, with both sides scoring in three of them.

Guadeloupe have had a tougher spell. Their recent four games contain one win, one draw and two losses. They started with a 2-1 away win over Bermuda, then drew 2-2 with Barbados at home. The momentum slipped as they suffered a 1-0 defeat to Saint Lucia on home turf and a 3-0 loss away to the same opponents. Across these four outings they have scored four goals and allowed seven. They have failed to score in two matches and three of the games produced three or more goals, with both teams finding the net in two of those.

The only recent meeting between the sides ended in a 2-2 draw at home for Guadeloupe. That result showed both teams can create chances and that the match can produce plenty of goals. Given the similar style of the two sides – Barbados scoring freely at home and Guadeloupe able to hit the net when they win – we expect another open encounter with chances at both ends. The goal expectations of 1.4 for Barbados and 1.8 for Guadeloupe support the idea of a lively game.

Our pick is Guadeloupe or a draw, with the price sitting at 1.41. The price matches our reading of the game and gives a safe way to back the slight edge Guadeloupe have in the goal expectations. We think Guadeloupe can at least hold Barbados, especially after their recent draw, and a win is possible if they rediscover the form that gave them the 2-1 win over Bermuda. The pick would go wrong if Barbados tighten up defensively and win by a single goal, or if the match turns into a low-scoring affair with neither side finding the net twice. In most other scenarios the price looks good.