What to expect
We expect about 3.3 goals from Vietnam and 0.8 from Taiwan, so Vietnam come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Vietnam to win. Vietnam are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.3-0.7), and we make them about 92% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 90 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.13, which works out at about 88 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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