What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Belgium and 1.1 from Italy, so Belgium come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Belgium to win. Belgium are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.1), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.18, which works out at about 46 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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