Benin v Central African Republic prediction

What to expect

Benin host Central African Republic in an AFCON qualifier on 12 November. Benin sit top of a four-team group with four points from two games and a +1 goal difference. The leaders sit in the Euro-qualification places, just one spot above Burkina Faso who have the same points. Central African Republic sit bottom, with no points and a –3 goal difference, three points behind Mauritania who are just above them. A win for Benin would keep them clear at the top, while the visitors need a result to stay in the race.

Benin’s recent form is mixed. Their last three matches have produced a win, a draw and a loss. They began with a 3-0 defeat away to Argentina, then bounced back at home by beating Mauritania 2-1, and later earned a 1-1 draw away at Burkina Faso. In those three games Benin have scored three goals and let in five. They failed to find the net in the loss to Argentina, but the other two fixtures each produced three or more goals and both sides scored in each of those matches.

Central African Republic have struggled in their last two outings. They lost 4-1 at home to Kilmarnock and were beaten 3-0 away by Celtic. Those two defeats leave them with a –3 goal difference and no points from two games. The most recent loss to Celtic saw them unable to score and concede three without reply, a result that underlines their difficulties in finding the net and keeping clean sheets.

When these two teams have met before, the games have been open and produced goals on both ends. The statistics we have for this encounter suggest a similar pattern: Benin are expected to score about 2.1 goals, while Central African Republic average around 1.0. The chance Benin will score at least once is high, 89 %, and they are likely to find the net twice or more in 64 % of games. The visitors have a 57 % chance to score and only a 21 % chance to hit twice. This points to a match where both sides can create chances, but Benin have the edge.

We pick Benin to win. The price of 1.58 is longer than our own reading of the game, which gives Benin a 67 % chance to come out on top. The numbers show Benin as the stronger side, and their recent win over Mauritania proves they can score and defend enough at home. For our pick to go wrong, Central African Republic would need to improve dramatically, scoring twice and keeping a clean sheet, which has been rare in their recent matches. All things considered, backing Benin looks the cleaner play.