Ethiopia v Senegal: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Senegal to win 78%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Ethiopia host Senegal in an AFCON qualifier on 29 September 2026. Both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the group, but the table tells a clear story. Senegal sit higher than Ethiopia, and the numbers we have show them as the stronger side. They are expected to score about three times as many goals as the hosts – roughly 2.4 for Senegal against 0.8 for Ethiopia – which suggests an open game with chances at both ends. Ethiopia have a 49 % chance of finding the net at all, while Senegal’s chance of scoring is a very high 92 %. The odds of Ethiopia scoring twice or more are only 15 %, whereas Senegal are likely to hit the net twice in 71 % of their games. In short, the fixture leans heavily toward the visitors, but the expected total of just over three goals means there will still be room for the home side to make things interesting.

Our pick is Senegal to win. The price on offer is 1.79, which is longer than what we feel the game deserves, so it looks attractive. We think Senegal will win about 78 % of the time, based on their superior scoring odds and the fact they are the clear favorite on the numbers. Backing them outright is the simplest way to approach this match. For the pick to go wrong, Ethiopia would need to defy the odds and score at least twice while keeping Senegal to a single goal or none – a scenario that only happens in about 15 % of Ethiopia’s games and 8 % of Senegal’s games respectively. If the hosts manage to keep the game tight and limit Senegal’s chances, the upset becomes more likely, but the balance of probability still sits firmly with the visitors. The price of 1.79 gives us a good return if Senegal do what the numbers suggest and take the three points away from Addis Ababa.