Burundi v Algeria: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Algeria to win 81%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Burundi host Algeria in an AFCON qualifier on 29 September 2026. The two teams sit in very different places on the table. Burundi are fighting to climb out of the lower half, while Algeria sit comfortably in the top spots and are looking to keep the gap to their rivals widening. A win for Algeria would push them further ahead and keep them on course for automatic qualification. For Burundi a point would be a small boost, but three points would be a rare lift that could change the shape of their season. The numbers show Algeria as the clear favourite – they are expected to score about 2.5 goals, Burundi only about 0.8. The game is likely to be open, with chances at both ends, but the balance is heavily tilted toward the visitors.

We pick Algeria to win. The price on offer is 1.29, which is longer than our own reading of the match. Our own view is that Algeria have about an 83 % chance of coming out on top, which matches the 81 % chance we give the pick to succeed. The odds of Burundi scoring at all sit at 47 % and only 14 % for them to find the net twice or more, while Algeria are expected to hit the net in 94 % of their games and to score two or more goals in 74 % of them. That disparity makes an outright win the simplest and safest way to back the game. For the pick to go wrong, Burundi would need to surprise by scoring early and then hold firm, or Algeria would have to fail to convert the many chances they are likely to create. If either of those unlikely scenarios happens, the price would have paid off, but the odds are against them. All things considered, backing Algeria to win looks the better bet.