Comoros v Namibia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Comoros to win 57%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Comoros host Namibia in an AFCON qualifier on 29 September 2026. Both teams are looking to improve their position in the group, but the numbers we have give a clear edge to the home side. Comoros are expected to score about 1.5 goals, while Namibia average just 0.8. The chance of Comoros finding the net at all is high – 82 per cent – and they have a decent chance, 46 per cent, of scoring twice. Namibia’s odds are lower, with a 52 per cent chance to score and only a 16 per cent chance to hit two or more goals. In short, the statistical picture paints Comoros as the stronger side.

We think Comoros will win. Our own view puts their chance of victory at 57 per cent, which matches the numbers that show they are the better side. The price on offer is 1.95, which is longer than what we feel the game is worth. That makes the bet look attractive. For the pick to go wrong, Namibia would need to score first and then hold on, or the home side would have to miss both of their likely chances. If the match stays tight and ends 0-0, our pick would also fail. All things considered, backing Comoros to come out on top seems the cleaner play.