Bermuda v Guadeloupe: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Guadeloupe to win 54%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Bermuda host Guadeloupe in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 25 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of the table, each looking to climb a few places before the final round. A win for Bermuda would move them up a spot, while Guadeloupe would tighten the race for the top half. The numbers show Guadeloupe as the stronger side, with an expected 2.2 goals compared with Bermuda’s 1.6. The game should be open, with chances likely at both ends.

Bermuda have been in mixed form lately. They beat the Cayman Islands 2-1, then drew 0-0 with the Bahamas, and most recently suffered a 3-0 loss to the Dominican Republic. Those three results give them one win, one draw and one defeat, and they have scored three goals while conceding four in the last three matches. The recent defeat shows they can be vulnerable at the back, but the earlier win proves they can find the net when they press.

Guadeloupe come into the game on a better run. They opened with a 4-1 victory over Saint Lucia, followed by a 2-2 draw with Martinique, and then a 3-1 win against Grenada. That makes two wins and a draw from three games, with nine goals scored and four conceded. The most recent 3-1 win was convincing; Guadeloupe took the lead early, added a second before halftime, and held on despite a late goal from the visitors. Their attack has been sharp and their defence relatively solid.

When the two sides have met before, the matches have tended to produce a fair number of goals. Both teams have shown they can score and also leak a few, so we can expect a game with chances on both ends. The expected total of 3.7 goals fits the pattern of past meetings, where neither side has dominated defensively. An open contest with both teams likely to find the net seems the most probable scenario.

We pick Guadeloupe to win. The price of 2.85 is longer than our own reading of the game, but Guadeloupe’s higher expected goal tally and stronger recent form give them the edge. We see them as a 56 % chance to win, which matches the 54 % chance we assign to the pick. For the result to go wrong, Bermuda would need to score early and keep Guadeloupe from finding their rhythm, or Guadeloupe would have to miss several clear chances. If those things happen, the upset could be real, but the numbers favour Guadeloupe outright.