Bonaire v Cuba prediction

What to expect

Bonaire host Cuba in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 12 November. In the group Bonaire sit third out of four with three points from four matches and a goal difference of minus one. They are five points behind St Kitts and Nevis, who sit just above them, while Grenada sit level on points below. Cuba sit top of the same group with eight points and a plus-five goal difference. The leaders are only a single point ahead of St Kitts and Nevis, so a win for Cuba would cement their place at the summit, while a slip could open the door for a surprise challenge. Both sides have a lot to play for, and the numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends.

Bonaire’s last four games have been a mixed bag. They opened the run with a 4-1 away win over Grenada, then suffered a 3-2 home loss to the same opponents. After that they were beaten 2-0 away by Cuba and most recently fell 2-1 at home to St Kitts and Nevis. In those four matches Bonaire have scored seven goals and let in eight. They have failed to find the net only once, and three of the four games produced three or more goals, with both sides scoring in three of those encounters.

Cuba arrive on the back of two draws after a solid start to the campaign. Their most recent fixtures were a 2-2 home draw with St Kitts and Nevis, followed by a 3-3 away draw with the same side. Before the stalemates they beat Bonaire 2-0 at home and travelled to beat Grenada 3-0 away. Over the four games Cuba have scored ten goals while conceding five, keeping two clean sheets. Three of those matches featured three or more goals, and both teams found the net in two of them, showing that Cuba can both score and be vulnerable.

We back Cuba or a draw. The price of 1.02 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so taking the broader option gives us a safety net while still favouring the stronger side. Cuba are the clear statistical favourite, with a higher expected goal tally and a better recent record. The risk would be a surprise from Bonaire, who have shown they can score against stronger opponents and will be eager to bounce back at home. If Cuba slip and concede early, the game could open up, but we think the odds of our pick landing are about 76 %. The price looks good for the level of confidence we have.