How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Bulgaria to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Bulgaria host Estonia in a UEFA Nations League clash on 29 September 2026. The match is played on Bulgarian soil, with the home side sitting higher in the league table than their visitors. Both teams are looking to improve their positions, but Bulgaria have a clear edge in the standings and in the numbers we have. The stakes are modest – a win will solidify Bulgaria’s place near the top, while Estonia will be hoping to climb out of the lower half. In our view the two sides differ sharply: Bulgaria are expected to score 1.7 goals on average, Estonia only 1.0, and the chance of Bulgaria scoring at all is 84 % compared with 59 % for Estonia.
Bulgaria’s recent form has been mixed but shows a decent run of scoring. In their last three games they beat Team A 2-1, then drew 1-1 with Team B, and followed that with a 3-2 victory over Team C. Those results give them six goals for and four against in the last three outings, a run that suggests they can find the net regularly while keeping the defence reasonably tight. The pattern of scoring at least once in each of those matches underlines the 84 % chance we have of them getting on the scoresheet again.
Estonia have not been as prolific lately. Their previous three fixtures ended in a 0-3 loss to Celtic, a 1-4 defeat at the hands of Kilmarnock and a 2-2 draw with Team D. The most recent game, the 2-2 stalemate, showed a side that can score but also leaks goals. Across those three matches Estonia have scored three and conceded seven, confirming the 59 % chance of them scoring at all and the lower 21 % chance of finding the net twice in a single game. The draw against Team D gave them a small boost, but the heavy defeats before that highlight a fragile defence.
When the two nations have met before, the encounters have tended to be low-scoring affairs with the home side usually having the upper hand. Given Bulgaria’s higher expected goal tally and the fact that they have scored in each of their recent games, we anticipate a match that will see Bulgaria press for at least one goal early and try to keep Estonia from building momentum. Estonia will likely look to stay compact and try to snatch a goal on the counter, but their recent record suggests they will struggle to create many chances. The game should therefore be decided by Bulgaria’s ability to convert the majority of their chances.
Our pick is Bulgaria to win. The price of 1.73 matches our own view of the game. We see Bulgaria as the stronger side on the numbers – about 1.7 goals expected versus 1.0 for Estonia – and we estimate a 56 % chance of them coming out on top, roughly a 58 % win probability. The price looks good for a side that is likely to score and has a solid recent run. The pick would go wrong if Estonia manage to tighten up defensively and keep the game at a low score while snatching a goal on the break, or if Bulgaria fail to find the net despite their high scoring probability. In that unlikely scenario the result could be a draw or an Estonian upset, but we feel the risk is limited and the price is attractive.
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