How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Burkina Faso to win 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Burkina Faso host Benin in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are in the same group, but the table shows Burkina Faso a step ahead. A win for the home side would pull them further clear of the second-place spot, while Benin needs a result to keep any hope of moving up. The numbers we have say Burkina Faso are the stronger side. They are expected to score about 2.1 goals on average, compared with just 1.0 for Benin. That gives the match an open feel, with chances likely at both ends. The chance that Burkina Faso will find the net at all is very high – 89 out of 100 – and the chance they score twice or more sits at 63 out of 100. Benin’s odds of scoring are lower, 58 out of 100 for at least one goal and only 21 out of 100 for two or more.
Our pick is a Burkina Faso win. We see the price of 1.52 as matching our view of the game. The probability we give the result is about 66 out of 100, which is close to the 67 % chance we think they have to come out on top. The numbers suggest Burkina Faso will dominate the scoring, and that makes a simple win the cleaner play. For the pick to go wrong, Benin would need to break through more often than the 58 % chance we have for them to score at all, and they would have to keep Burkina Faso from scoring twice. If Benin manage to score two goals while holding Burkina Faso to one, the result would flip. But given the goal expectations and the high likelihood of Burkina Faso finding the net, we feel comfortable backing the home side to win at the offered price.
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