Burkina Faso v Mauritania prediction

What to expect

Burkina Faso host Mauritania in an AFCON qualifier on 13 November. Both teams sit in the middle of a four-team group. Burkina Faso are second with four points from two games and a +1 goal difference. They sit one place above Mauritania, who are third with three points and the same +1 goal difference. One spot separates them from Benin above and the Central African Republic below. A win for the hosts will put them level on points with Benin and keep them in the race for the group’s euro places, while Mauritania will need the three points to stay in contention.

Burkina Faso’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three matches they lost 7-0 away to Argentina, beat the Central African Republic 1-0 away and drew 1-1 with Benin at home. Across those games they have scored two goals and let in eight. The run includes one clean sheet, one game where they failed to score and one high-scoring affair. The win over the Central African Republic gave them three points, but the heavy defeat to Argentina and the draw with Benin show they can be vulnerable.

Mauritania have also been inconsistent. Their recent results are not listed, so we cannot detail them. Their most recent result, however, was a 1-0 win over the Central African Republic, a narrow victory that gave them three points and kept their goal difference at +1. That win shows they can grind out a result when needed, but the lack of other scores suggests they have struggled to find the net regularly.

When these two sides meet, the numbers favour Burkina Faso. Our calculations give Burkina Faso an average of 1.7 goals per game compared with 0.8 for Mauritania. The chance that Burkina Faso will score at all is 83 %, and the chance they will score twice or more is 52 %. Mauritania’s chance to score at all is 50 % and only 15 % to score twice. This suggests a low-scoring game where the hosts are more likely to find the net. The pattern of recent games – a single goal win for Burkina Faso and a narrow win for Mauritania – points to a tight contest, possibly decided by a single goal.

We pick Burkina Faso to win. The price of 1.59 matches our view of the game. Our chance of this outcome is about 62 %, which is a solid probability. The pick looks good because Burkina Faso are the stronger side on the numbers and have the home advantage. It would go wrong if Mauritania manage to score first and hold on, or if Burkina Faso fail to break down a disciplined defence. In those cases the game could end in a draw or a surprise win for the visitors. Otherwise the odds and the stats favour a home victory.