Lesotho v Morocco: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Morocco to win 84%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Lesotho host Morocco in an AFCON qualifier at the end of September. In the group table Lesotho sit near the bottom while Morocco occupy a comfortable spot near the top. A win for Morocco would keep them firmly in the race for the automatic places, and a loss would do little more than confirm Lesotho’s struggle this campaign. The two teams are very different on paper – the numbers show Morocco as the clear favourite, with a far higher chance of scoring and winning.

Lesotho have not been able to find the net in their recent matches. Their last three games ended in defeats without a goal, the most recent being a 0-0 draw that still left them with zero points from the last four fixtures. The side has scored only once in their previous five outings, and they have conceded heavily each time. This run leaves them with a very low scoring record and a fragile defence that has let in many goals.

Morocco come into the game on a much stronger run. In their last four fixtures they have scored in every match, winning three and drawing one. Their most recent result was a 3-1 victory, where they found the net three times and kept the opponent to a single goal. That performance shows they can create chances and finish them, and they have done so consistently over the past few weeks.

When the two sides have met before, the games have been one-sided affairs. Morocco have always been the side to dominate, scoring more than they concede. This upcoming meeting is likely to follow the same pattern – a match where Morocco control the play, create the chances and find the back of the net, while Lesotho struggle to threaten. Expect a low-scoring effort from Lesotho and a couple of goals from the visitors.

We back Morocco to win. The price of 1.03 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, but it still offers a safe return. Morocco’s expected two-point advantage and their high chance of scoring make them the sensible choice. For this to go wrong, Lesotho would need to score early and keep a clean sheet, something that has happened only rarely in their recent history. Otherwise the odds are firmly in Morocco’s favour.