How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Cape Verde or Draw 85%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Cape Verde host Rwanda in an AFCON qualifier on 29 September 2026. Both teams are looking to climb the table, but the numbers show a clear gap between them. Our calculations give Cape Verde an expected 1.3 goals while Rwanda average only 0.7. That means the game is likely to be tight and low-scoring. Cape Verde have a 74 % chance of finding the net at least once and a 36 % chance of scoring twice or more. Rwanda’s chances are lower – 47 % to score at all and just 12 % to hit a double. In short, the visitors will have to work hard for a goal, and the hosts are the side most likely to break the deadlock.
We back Cape Verde or the draw. The price on that option is 1.09, which is shorter than what we think the game will be worth. By taking the double chance we protect ourselves if the match ends level, while still standing to win if Cape Verde manage to score. The price looks good because it rewards the modest edge we see for the home side without demanding a specific scoreline. Our confidence in this choice is high – we put the chance of it landing at 85 % out of 100. For the pick to go wrong, Rwanda would need to keep a clean sheet and then either hold on for a draw or snatch a win, something that looks unlikely given their 47 % chance to score at all and just a 12 % chance of getting two goals. If the game does open up and Cape Verde manage a second goal, the price would still have paid, so the risk is limited.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
