Comoros v Congo prediction

What to expect

Comoros host Congo in an AFCON qualifier on 13 November. In the group Comoros sit third out of four with three points from two games, a goal-difference of minus one. One place above them sits Namibia, just a point ahead, while Congo sit bottom with a single point and the same minus-one goal difference, two points behind the hosts. Both teams need points to move up, but the stakes are modest – a win for Comoros would lift them to second place, while a victory for Congo would only bring them level with Namibia. On paper Comoros look the stronger side, with an expected 1.7 goals compared with Congo’s 0.8.

Comoros have had a mixed recent run. Their last three fixtures have produced one win and two defeats. They fell 1-0 away to Senegal, then bounced back with a 1-0 home win over Namibia, before losing 3-1 away to Cameroon. In those three games they have scored two goals and let in four. They kept a clean sheet against Namibia but failed to find the net against Senegal. Only one of those matches featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in the Cameroon game.

Congo’s recent form is also uneven. Over their last three outings they have recorded one draw and two losses. They were beaten 3-0 by Celtic and then suffered a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Kilmarnock. Their most recent result, the 4-1 loss, showed they can score but also concede heavily, leaving them with a goal tally of five for and seven against in the three matches. Their chance of scoring at all this weekend sits at 53 % and the chance of scoring twice or more is just 17 %.

When these two have met before, the games have been low-scoring affairs, with each side finding the net only occasionally. Given the numbers, this meeting is likely to follow a similar pattern – a tight contest where Comoros have the edge. The expected total of 2.5 goals and the higher probability of Comoros scoring (83 % chance) suggest a modest goal count, perhaps a single goal deciding the match.

We back Comoros to win. The price of 1.88 is longer than our own reading of the game, which gives Comoros about a 60 % chance of coming out on top. The numbers favour them strongly – they are expected to score more than twice as many goals as Congo and have a higher likelihood of finding the net at all. For our pick to fail, Congo would need to improve dramatically, scoring at least two goals and keeping a clean sheet, something their recent record does not support. All things considered, backing the home side looks the cleaner play.