What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Croatia and 1.1 from Czech Republic, so Croatia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Croatia come into this on three straight defeats. Czech Republic come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Croatia to win. Croatia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.1), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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