What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Croatia and 1.8 from Spain, so Spain come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Spain come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Spain to win. Spain shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.8), and we make them about 60% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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