How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Egypt to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Egypt host Angola in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are looking to improve their positions in the group, but the table shows Egypt clearly ahead of Angola. The stakes are simple: a win keeps Egypt in the hunt for the top spot, while Angola needs points to stay clear of the relegation zone. The numbers we have paint Egypt as the stronger side, with an expected 1.5 goals compared with Angola’s 0.7. That suggests a tight, low-scoring affair where each goal will matter.
We pick Egypt to win. The price of 1.39 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which gives Egypt about a 60 % chance of coming out on top. Egypt have an 80 % chance of scoring at least once and a 44 % chance of scoring twice, while Angola’s chances are lower – 45 % to get on the scoresheet and only 12 % to hit a brace. On this shape, backing Egypt looks the cleaner play. For the pick to go wrong, Angola would need to surprise with a goal and then hold on, or Egypt would have to be shut out despite their scoring odds. If either of those happens, the result would be an upset, but the odds suggest the risk is small.
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