El Salvador v Paraguay prediction

What to expect

El Salvador host Paraguay in a friendly on 13 October 2026. Both teams are using the match to test players rather than chase points, but the result still tells us something about where each side sits. Paraguay are clearly the stronger side on paper, with an expectation of 1.4 goals compared with El Salvador’s 0.6. The numbers point to a tight, low-scoring game. For El Salvador the chance of scoring at all is under half, while Paraguay are likely to find the net in three-quarters of their games. The price for a Paraguay win is 2.15, longer than our own reading of the encounter.

El Salvador come into this fixture after four matches that have left them struggling to find consistency. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw with Martinique away, following a 2-0 loss to Jamaica at home and a heavy 6-0 defeat to Guatemala away. The only win in that stretch was a 3-1 victory over Martinique at home. In those four games they have scored four goals and let in ten, failing to score in two of them. Three of the matches produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of those. The team have now gone three games without a win, and they played their last match just eight days ago.

We back Paraguay to win. The price of 2.15 looks generous when you consider Paraguay’s expected 1.4 goals against El Salvador’s 0.6. Our own view gives Paraguay about a 56 % chance of coming out on top, which matches the odds we see. For the pick to go wrong, El Salvador would need to score first and then hold on, or Paraguay would have to be shut out completely. Both scenarios look unlikely given the goal expectations, so we think backing Paraguay outright is the straightforward way to go.