Germany v Japan prediction

What to expect

Germany host Japan in a friendly on 13 October. Both teams sit in the middle of their recent results, so the match is more about testing squads than chasing points. The game will not affect any qualification, but a win will give the hosts a morale boost after a mixed run, while Japan will look to keep their three-game winning streak alive.

Germany have played four games in their latest stretch, with one win, two draws and one loss. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw away to Greece. Before that they beat Serbia 2-0 at home, lost 1-0 to Greece at home and drew 1-1 away to the Netherlands. In those four matches they have scored three goals and let in two. They kept two clean sheets but also failed to find the net in two games. No match in that run produced three or more goals, and both sides scored only once.

Japan come into the fixture on the back of three straight victories. Their latest outing was a 2-1 win over New Zealand at home. Prior to that they beat Venezuela 2-1 and Uruguay 3-1, also at home. Across those three games Japan have scored seven goals and conceded three. All three matches featured three or more goals and each saw both teams on the scoresheet.

When the two sides have met before, the games have been open with chances at both ends. The expected goal figures for this encounter are 1.6 for Germany and 1.4 for Japan, giving an average of just over three goals. The chances of either side scoring are high – 77 % for Germany and 76 % for Japan – and both have a solid probability of scoring twice or more. This suggests another match where both teams are likely to find the net.

Our pick is Germany or a draw, priced at 1.56. We like the safety of covering a draw while still backing the home side. The price looks good for that wider safety net. The bet will fail if Japan wins outright, which would require them to keep their scoring edge and also hold Germany scoreless. If the game ends with both sides scoring or a stalemate, we expect the pick to succeed.