What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Venezuela and 1.5 from Colombia, so Colombia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Venezuela come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Colombia to win. Colombia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.5), and we make them about 55% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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