Equatorial Guinea v Zimbabwe prediction

What to expect

Equatorial Guinea host Zimbabwe in an AFCON qualifier on 12 November. Both teams sit on three points after two games, but the table is tight. Zimbabwe sit second of four, level on points with the hosts but with a neutral goal difference, while Equatorial Guinea are third, a place below and with a –1 goal difference. DR Congo sit above Zimbabwe with three points more, and Sierra Leone trail Equatorial Guinea by three points. The two sides are fighting for the only euro-place slot that the group offers, so a single point could move either team into a qualifying position or drop them to the bottom. The numbers suggest a close, low-scoring affair – both sides average just over one goal each and the chance of either side scoring twice is below a third.

Our pick is Equatorial Guinea or a draw. The price of 1.30 is shorter than what we feel the game warrants, giving us a little extra safety. The chance of Equatorial Guinea scoring at all is 70 %, and Zimbabwe’s chance is 64 %. Both sides are more likely to find the net once than to hit a brace, so a 0-0 or 1-0 result feels plausible. Backing the home side or a draw covers the most likely outcomes while still rewarding a win if Equatorial Guinea manage to edge it. Our confidence in this selection sits at 71 % and we think the price is attractive for the risk involved.

If the game stays tight, a single goal could decide it. For our pick to fail, Zimbabwe would need to win outright, which would require them to score and keep a clean sheet while Equatorial Guinea fail to find the net. That would need a higher scoring rate from Zimbabwe than the 64 % chance we have for them to score at all, and a lower than expected defensive showing from the hosts. Given the similar goal expectations and the importance of the points, we feel the safest route is to back Equatorial Guinea or settle for a draw at the offered price.