How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Gabon or Draw 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Gabon and 1.5 from Niger, so Gabon come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Gabon or Draw. This covers Gabon or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.13, which works out at about 88 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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