What to expect
Gambia host Somalia in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are looking to climb the table, but the numbers show a clear gap. Gambia sit higher in the standings and are expected to score about 2.5 goals, while Somalia average just 0.8. The gap means the home side will be pushing for three points, and a win would push them further up the group. For Somalia, a draw would be a useful point, but a win looks unlikely given the goal expectations. The match should stay open, with chances for both sides, but the odds favor Gambia to finish on top.
We think Gambia will win. The chance they score at all is 93 %, and the chance they find the net twice or more is 72 %. Somalia’s chance to score is only 49 %, and to hit two goals it drops to 14 %. Our chance that a Gambia victory will happen sits at 78 %. The price of 1.26 matches our view of the game. With Gambia clearly the stronger side on the numbers, backing them to win looks the cleaner play. The price is close to what we think the result is worth, and there is little risk in chasing a bigger return elsewhere. If Somalia were to score early and then hold firm, the result could slip, but that would require them to beat the odds of scoring at all, which is under 50 %. All things considered, we back Gambia to come out on top.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →