How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Gambia to win 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Gambia host Somalia in an AFCON qualifier on 25 September 2026. Both teams are fighting for points that could move them up the table, but the numbers show a clear gap between them. Gambia sit higher in the standings, while Somalia are lower and need a result to keep any hope of climbing. The expected goal totals – 2.5 for Gambia and 0.8 for Somalia – underline the difference in quality. The match should be open, with chances at both ends, but the odds heavily favour the home side. Gambia have a 93 % chance of scoring at least once and a 72 % chance of finding the net twice or more. Somalia’s chances are much slimmer, with a 49 % chance of scoring at all and only a 14 % chance of getting two goals. In short, the numbers paint Gambia as the stronger side and the clear favourite.
Our pick is Gambia to win. We see about an 80 % chance that they will come out on top, and the price of 1.14 is shorter than our own reading of the game, making it look attractive. The price looks good because it reflects the strong statistical edge Gambia have, and the risk of a surprise is low given the low probability of Somalia scoring more than once. For the pick to go wrong, Somalia would need to defy the odds and score at least two goals while keeping Gambia to a single strike or a clean sheet – an outcome that the data suggests is unlikely. With a 78 % chance of this prediction landing, we think backing Gambia is the cleaner play rather than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
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