Ghana v Gambia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Ghana to win 56%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Ghana host Gambia in an AFCON qualifier on 29 September 2026. Both teams are in the same group, but we have no exact table positions. What matters is the gap in the numbers we have. Ghana average 1.8 goals per game while Gambia manage 1.1. The odds of Ghana finding the net at least once sit at 85 per cent, compared with 64 per cent for Gambia. Ghana also have a better chance of scoring twice or more – 55 per cent versus 27 per cent for the visitors. Those figures make Ghana the clear favourite on paper.

We have no recent match results listed for either side, so we cannot point to a run of wins or defeats. The only concrete data we can rely on are the goal expectations and scoring probabilities already mentioned.

There is no head-to-head record provided, so we cannot refer to past meetings. All we can say is that the numbers suggest a game with a few goals – about 2.9 in total – and that Ghana are expected to be the side that scores more.

Our pick is Ghana to win. We see Ghana as the stronger side on the numbers, roughly 1.8 goals to Gambia’s 1.1. We put the chance of a Ghana win at 56 per cent, which is close to our own reading of the match. The price on offer is 1.50, which is shorter than we think the game should be priced at. Taking Ghana to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere. For the pick to go wrong, Gambia would need to score first and then hold on, or Ghana would have to fail to find the net at all – both outcomes are less likely given the scoring probabilities.