How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Cuba or Draw 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Grenada host Cuba in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 25 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of the table, each looking to pull away from the pack. A win for Grenada would move them a few places higher, while a victory for Cuba could see them climb out of the lower half. The two sides are almost evenly matched on the numbers we have, with Grenada averaging 1.4 goals per game and Cuba 1.5. Both have a high chance of finding the net, so the three points are up for grabs and the standings could shift either way.
Grenada have been busy in their last few fixtures. They beat Saint Lucia 2-1, then drew 1-1 with Antigua and Barbuda, and followed that with a 3-2 win over Dominica. Those three results give them six points from nine goals scored and four conceded. The run shows they can score and also keep games close. Their recent form suggests they are comfortable when they get ahead, but they also know how quickly a match can tighten.
Cuba’s recent schedule has been a little tougher. They lost 3-0 to Celtic and then fell 4-1 at the hands of Kilmarnock. Their most recent game was a 2-2 draw against Puerto Rico, where they managed to come back from a goal down and hold on for a point. That draw showed they can score twice and also keep a clean sheet for part of the game, but it also highlighted defensive lapses that let the opposition equalise. Overall they have scored five and let in seven in the last three matches.
When these two have met before, the games have been close affairs with both sides finding the net. The pattern suggests a match that could swing on a single moment, and with both teams averaging around one and a half goals, we expect another tight contest. The chances of each side scoring at least once are high – 74 per cent for Grenada and 78 per cent for Cuba – and both have a decent chance of scoring twice or more. That makes a low-scoring draw or a narrow win for either side the most likely outcomes.
Our pick is Cuba or a draw at 1.34. The price is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so we back the lean with a safety net. This covers a Cuban win and also any draw, giving us a sensible way to stay in the game without needing the exact score. The price looks good and we think there is a 68 per cent chance it will work. It would go wrong if Grenada manage to hold a clean sheet and score twice, or if the match ends with a clear win for the home side. In those cases the price would not pay out.
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