Guadeloupe v Saint Lucia prediction

What to expect

Guadeloupe host Saint Lucia in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 5 October. In the group Guadeloupe sit third out of four with four points from three games and a goal difference of minus two. Saint Lucia are just above them in second place, holding six points and a plus-four goal difference. A win for Guadeloupe would lift them to second, while a loss would see them drop to fourth behind Bermuda, who are four points behind. Both teams have a chance to move up, so the stakes are clear: three points could change the whole table.

Guadeloupe’s recent form has been mixed. Their last three matches have produced one win, one draw and one loss. They began with a 2-2 draw against Barbados at home, then travelled to beat Bermuda 2-1, and most recently suffered a 3-0 defeat away to Saint Lucia. In those three games they have scored four goals and let in six. They failed to find the net in the loss to Saint Lucia, but the other two fixtures each produced at least three goals, with both sides scoring in the draw and the win.

Saint Lucia arrive on the back of two straight victories. Their most recent game was a 3-0 home win over Guadeloupe, followed by a 5-2 triumph against Bermuda on their own turf. Before that they lost 2-0 away to Barbados. Over the three matches they have scored eight goals while conceding four, keeping one clean sheet and being shut out once. Like Guadeloupe they played only three days ago, so both sides are coming off a short turnaround.

The two sides have already met this season, with Saint Lucia handing Guadeloupe a 3-0 defeat at home. That result suggests Saint Lucia can dominate when they play away, but the earlier 2-2 draw with Barbados shows Guadeloupe are capable of scoring and can keep games open. Expect another game with chances at both ends, as the numbers point to an open contest and both teams have shown they can find the net.

We back Guadeloupe on a draw-no-bet at 2.40. The price is longer than our own reading of the game, but Guadeloupe are the stronger side on the goal expectations – 2.7 goals for them versus 0.8 for Saint Lucia. The chance they score at all is 93 per cent and the chance they score twice or more is 75 per cent. Saint Lucia’s chances are much lower, with only a 48 per cent chance to score and a 14 per cent chance to get two goals. Our pick should work about 89 per cent of the time. It would only fail if Guadeloupe are held scoreless and Saint Lucia manage to find the net, turning the game into a loss for the home side.

Recent meetings